Sarasota County faces empty classes

Student enrollment is expected to drop for a second straight year in Sarasota County, something that could leave dozens of teachers out of work when school starts in August.

The district projects there will be about 1,000 fewer students in its traditional public schools this year. The lower enrollment is being driven in part by about 550 students who signed up to attend a new charter school in North Port. Most of the rest likely moved out of the area because of the poor economy.

And administrators acknowledge they may not have seen the worst, in an area that has been hit hard by the real estate downturn. Some schools -- including North Port High -- are already lowering their projected enrollments.

"The crystal ball is a little cloudy these days in terms of enrollment," said Schools Superintendent Lori White.

"There's a feeling that in this county we are being hit very hard. There are implications if we are below our projections."

Enrollment is tied to funding and staffing, so if fewer students show up than school districts projected in their budgets they could have to return money to the state or lay off teachers.

Sarasota's declining student population underscores something happening across Florida, as the poor economy makes it increasingly difficult for school districts to project accurate enrollment numbers. There is no sure way to know how many students move out of the area during the summer months without notifying the district.

That is a stark contrast to the first half of the decade, when each year Florida school districts could count on enrolling thousands of new students. More often than not the first days of school brought more students than expected and districts had to hire teachers.

That started changing last year, when in the first two months of the school year alone Florida's student population dropped by 10,000. More than half of the state's districts reported drops. Most of the rest had stagnant enrollment.

Manatee County's enrollment took a hit two years ago, but this year the district expects about 400 new students.

"If the market changes, it's another story," said Danny Lundeen, director of student assignment.

In Sarasota, school officials believe the enrollment problems will continue for another few years. Sarasota has been expecting the enrollment to start climbing again in 2010. But new numbers released this month by the state delay the rise until 2014.

"Everyone knows we're in an economic downturn," said Ken Marsh, planner for Sarasota County schools. "This latest news just means it may last a little longer than we were believing."

Some of the biggest drops are at schools in lower-income neighborhoods, including elementary schools Emma Booker, Gocio and Tuttle, where last year principals reported families leaving the area in search of employment.

In past years, enrollment drops at the start of the school year has not necessarily meant teacher layoffs. School districts typically get an influx of resignations over the summer and have open positions. And, when budgets were not as tight as now, they could afford to absorb the costs of extra teachers.

But this year all bets are off. School officials do not know if as many teachers will resign over the summer months because the economy is bad and few places are hiring.

The district has already had to temporarily lay off 23 teachers, but that number could go up if enrollment falls short of the projections.

District officials are trying to get a better handle on the numbers before school starts and are encouraging parents who know they plan to withdraw their children to let the district know as soon as possible.

The declining enrollment is also prompting the school district to postpone plans for new school construction. The school board is putting off plans for a new technical school in the south part of the county and an elementary school in Lakewood Ranch, which were both scheduled to open in 2011.

"School districts are not immune from economic downturns," said School Board member Carol Todd.